Fiji’s Tropical Cyclone Outlook – 2024-25

One to two tropical cyclones (TCs) are likely to pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone during the 2024-25 TC season.
Of these, one TC is likely to reach severe Category (Category 3-5).
There is equal risk of TCs affecting any part of the Fiji Group.
While the peak TC activities are usually from January to February, TCs can form at any time during the season. Out of season TCs cannot be ruled out.
It does not take a direct hit or a severe TC to cause considerable damage or life-threatening weather. Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity can and have previously caused strong winds/gusts, widespread heavy rainfall, landslides and flooding.
All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the TC season and take heed of all advisories whenever it is issued.

Figure 1: Total number of TCs forecasted for the Fiji region.

Figure 2. Number of severe TCs forecasted for the Fiji region.

To predict the outlook for the 2024-25 TC season, analogue seasons were identified, that is, seasons in the past (from 1980) with similar background climate. These seasons were 1983-84, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2016-17 and 2017-18.
On average, around two TCs affect Fiji every season. Thus, near normal tropical cyclone activity is likely for the Fiji region this season.
The TC season in the southwest Pacific extend from November to April, with the peak TC activities normally experienced from January to March. However, TCs have occasionally occurred in this region during October and May, and rarely in September and June. Out of season TCs cannot be ruled out this season.
In the past, tropical depressions also had significant impact on Fiji, especially heavy rainfall and severe flooding. Thus, it is important to take heed of all-weather advisories seriously.

Seasonal summary so far – January 2025